Balancing Forecast Models with Actual Wind: The Real Decision Point in Paragliding
When it comes to planning a day of paragliding, no tool is more heavily used — or more easily misinterpreted — than the weather forecast. With dozens of forecast models at our fingertips, it’s tempting to treat them like gospel. But in flying, especially foot-launched flight like paragliding, no forecast matters if the actual wind speed is outside the bounds of what is safe and flyable.
Forecast Models: Many Voices, One Reality
Forecast models (GFS, NAM, HRRR, ICON, etc.) are computer-generated predictions of atmospheric conditions based on current data. They are invaluable for identifying trends — changes in temperature, shifting pressure systems, or wind patterns over time. But when it comes to precision, especially in wind direction and velocity at a local flying site, the models often diverge.
It’s not uncommon to see four different models giving four different wind speeds for the same time and place. Sometimes, one model nails it while the others miss — but you only know which one was right after the day plays out. That’s the catch.
Article / Video from Ground School (special) showing tools to research forecasts
Step One: Forecast for Direction and Velocity
The first step in deciding whether to plan a flying day is to look for a promising forecast. We’re not just looking for a good weather window — we’re looking for wind that’s coming from a flyable direction at a manageable speed for our chosen site. If the forecast says 25 mph at ridge height, it doesn’t matter how sunny it is — we’re not going. On the other hand, a forecast of 6–10 mph straight in might get us moving.
That initial decision — “Is it even worth getting in the car?” — depends on forecasted conditions. But that’s just the beginning.
The Real Answer: Actual Wind
Before committing to the site or hike to launch, we check real-time wind reports. Weather stations near launch or landing zones are the tie-breaker between optimism and realism. If the models said “too strong,” but the instruments say, “it’s calm,” that opens the door. And vice versa: if the forecast looked great, but the wind meters are already red-lining, it’s a no-go.
The art is in balancing the trend shown in the forecasts with the truth told by the instruments. Forecasts are a guide — they point the way — but the actual wind is the final answer. It’s the gatekeeper to the sky.
When the Forecast is Wrong — Both Ways
Sometimes the forecast is pessimistic — 18 mph predicted at launch, but instruments show it’s been steady at 9–11 mph all morning. You drive out, reassess at launch, and may end up with the best flight of the week.
Other times, the models look dreamy, but you show up and find 20 gusting 28. On paper it looked perfect. In reality, it’s a blowout.
In both scenarios, the takeaway is the same: forecasts help us prepare, but the actual wind tells us whether to commit. That’s the balance every paraglider pilot learns over time — sometimes the hard way.
Conclusion: Respect the Wind, Not Just the Forecast
The forecast is where the planning starts. But the actual conditions are where the decision is made. Chasing a good-looking model output without verifying the real-world wind can cost time, fuel, and worse — it can set you up for risky flying.
So before you gear up, check the real wind. If it’s out of bounds, the forecast doesn’t matter. If it’s within limits, and trends are stable, it’s time to fly.
Fly smart. Fly safe. Trust the wind you can feel.
